Wirtschafts-Buch "Large-scale Macro-Econometric Models"

Theory an practice

Contributions to economic analysis

Editors: J. Kmenta (University of Michigan) and J.B. Ramsey (New York University)

Publisher: North-Holland Publishing Company Amsterdam

Jahr: 1981

Sprache: English

Anzahl Seiten: 461

Zustand: alt, aber sonst keine Eselsohren oder keine ausgerissenen/zerissenen Seiten

Inhalt:

-Model Size, Quality of Forecast Accuracy and Economic Theory

-Forecast economic Variables

-the practice of macroeconometric Model Building and its Rationale

-Perspectives on the accuracy of Macro-econometric forecasting models

-An evaluation of the forecasting performance of macro economic models with special emphasis on model size

-the comparison of time series and econometric forecasting strategies

-advancement of economic knowledge and the size of macro-econometric models

-economic theory and econometric models

-economic theory, model size, model purpose

-statistical inference in relation to the size of the model

-the major streams of economy-wide modeling: is rapprochement possible

-construction of macro-econometric models

-an autoregressive index model for the US 1948-1975

-on a theoretical and empirical basis of macroeconometric models

-scale of macro-econometric models and accuracy of forecasting

-evaluation of macro-econometric models

-the methodology of macroeconometric model comparisons

-evaluation of econometric models by decomposition and aggregation

-conclusion: summary

This series consists of a number of hitherto unpublished studies, which are introduced by the editors in the belief that they represent fresh contributions to economic science.

The term "economic analysis" as used in the title of the series has been adopted because it covers both the activities of the theoretical economist and the research worker.

Although the analytical methods used by the various contributors are not the same, they are nevertheless conditioned by the common origin of their studies, namely theoretical problems encountered in practical research. Since for this reason, business cycle research and national accounting, research work on behalf of economic policy, and problems of planning are the main sources of the subjects dealt with, they necessarily determine the manner of approach adopted by the authors. Their methods tend to be "practical" in the sense of not being too far remote from application to actual economic conditions In addition they are quantitative rather than qualitative.

It is the hope of the editors that the publication of these studies will help to stimulate the exchange of scientific information and to reinforce international cooperation in the field of economics.